For many low-income countries, the impact of structural reforms on economic growth and poverty alleviation crucially depends on the response of aggregate agricultural supply to changing incentives. Despite its policy relevance, the size of this parameter is still largely unknown. This paper...

For many low-income countries, the impact of structural reforms on economic growth and poverty alleviation crucially depends on the response of aggregate agricultural supply to changing incentives. Despite its policy relevance, the size of this parameter is still largely unknown. This paper...

Econometric and time series model are utilized to study price linkages between the U.S. and chicken export markets. VAR model results show export price is affected by its past and leg-quarters prices. Econometric estimation results suggest a negative relationship between export price and broiler...

Purpose - Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of edible oil in the Chinese market over a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010 to January 3, 2020, is the...

We define causal estimands for experiments on single time series, extending the potential outcome framework to dealing with temporal data. Our approach allows the estimation of some of these estimands and exact randomization based p-values for testing causal effects, without imposing stringent...

For panel data models including time-invariant variables, this paper proposes a new Hausman pretest estimator of the internal instruments of Hausman-Taylor estimator. It assumes Mundlak and Krishnakumar linear specification for the endogeneity of random individual effects. Furthermore, the paper...

This paper studies the time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model in which the regression coefficients are random walk latent states with time dependent conditional variances. This TVP model is flexible to accommodate a wide variety of timevariation patterns but requires effective shrinkage...

We develop a uniform test for detecting and dating the integrated or mildly explosive behaviour of a strictly stationary generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process. Namely, we test the null hypothesis of a globally stable GARCH process with constant parameters...

Deriving estimators from historical data is common practice in applied quantitative finance. The availability of ever larger data sets and easier access to statistical algorithms has also led to an increased usage of historical estimators. In this research note, we illustrate how to assess the...