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comparable - if not better - to the one obtained using theory free "Minnesota" priors (Doan et al., 1984). Additionally, the … marginal-likelihood of the time-series model with theory founded priors - derived from the output of the Gibbs sampler - can be …
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We present a new method for estimating Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR) models using priors from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We use the DSGE model priors to determine the moments of an independent Normal-Wishart prior for the VAR parameters. Two hyper-parameters...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011886093
This paper develops and implements a backward and forward error analysis of and condition numbers for the numerical stability of the solutions of linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Comparing seven different solution methods from the literature, I demonstrate an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014429077
In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast macroeconomic variables that combines two existing approaches to mixed-frequency data in DSGE models. The first existing approach estimates the DSGE model in a quarterly frequency and uses higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting...
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Phenomena such as the Great Moderation have increased the attention of macro-economists towards models where shock processes are not (log-)normal. This paper studies a class of discrete-time rational expectations models where the variance of exogenous innovations is subject to stochastic regime...
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