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We propose a new time series model where the threshold is specified as an empirical quantile of recent observations of a threshold variable. The resulting conditional threshold traces the fluctuation of the threshold variable, which can enhance the fit and interpretation of the model. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313908
while ARIMA model gives the most accurate forecast of twelve-month inflation in EU countries. The Holt-Winters (additive and … fact that the European Union has been implementing a policy of strict inflation targeting for a long time, so the ARIMA … models give the most accurate forecast of inflation future values. In the countries of the Western Balkans the targeting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012939069
. This paper therefore focuses on investigating the existence or otherwise of long memory in the Nigerian and US inflation …-parametric methods. Even though the US inflation is fractionally integrated and Nigerian inflation series has unit root, the linear model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139343
In this paper we extend the traditional GARCH(1,1) model by including a functional trend term in the conditional volatility of a time series. We derive the main properties of the model and apply it to all agricultural commodities in the Mexican CPI basket, as well as to the international prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456514
This paper studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for twelve central European … countries,in comparison with the United States and the euro area. Inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high … inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation persistence has declined both in the US and euro-area. In most central and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768497
This article studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for twelve central European … countries, in comparison with the United States and the euro area. Inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high … inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation persistence has declined both in the US and the euro-area. In most central and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009777733
wealth. Domestic price inflation is affected by imported inflation including currency depreciation (a pass through effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014215622
This paper examines the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis in the Republic of Croatia. The main aim is to test whether the PPP Theory holds in the case of the Republic of Croatia and whether the PPP Theory is an appropriate method on which monetary policy makers can rely in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222876
This paper provides tables of critical values for some popular tests of cointegration and unit roots. Although these tables are necessarily based on computer simulations, they are much more accurate than those previously available. The results of the simulation experiments are summarized by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010290329
This paper presents a family of simple nonparametric unit root tests indexed by one parameter, d, and containing Breitung's (2002) test as the special case d = 1. It is shown that (i) each member of the family with d 0 is consistent, (ii) the asymptotic distribution depends on d, and thus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728253