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The main goal of this research is to construct and assess forecast intervals for monthly US/EURO foreign exchange rate. The point forecasts used to build the intervals are based on a vector autoregression (VAR model) and on a Bayesian VAR model for data starting with the first month of 1999. The...
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that estimated parameters can be used for forecasting the evolution of the turbulent flow. We compare forecasting results … by estimating the intermittency parameter and forecasting of volatility for a sample of financial data from stock and … foreign exchange markets. -- Random Lognormal cascades ; GMM estimation ; best linear forecasting ; volatility of financial …
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