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This thesis presents a new strategy that unites qualitative and quantitative mass data in form of text news and tick-by-tick asset prices to forecast the risk of upcoming volatility shocks. Holger Kömm embeds the proposed strategy in a monitoring system, using first, a sequence of competing...
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is to decompose the predictive power of the moving average trading rule and isolate the portion that could be attributed … correlation. Applying moving average trading rules to both the original and the simulated indices and using a statistical testing … procedure that takes into account the sensitivity of the performance of the trading rule as a function of moving average length …
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