Showing 1 - 10 of 12,356
component analysis (SPCA), coupled with a variety of other factor estimation as well as data shrinkage methods, including … nonlinear methods, and that using a combination of factor and other shrinkage methods often yields superior predictions. For … forms of shrinkage. For example, SPCA yields MSFE-best prediction models in many cases, particularly when coupled with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009766687
-series data (cvlasso), and theory-driven ('rigorous') penalization for the lasso and square-root lasso for cross-section and panel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011972491
variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the estimates … relative to shrinkage alone. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012031047
variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the estimates … relative to shrinkage alone. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012117683
The paper proposes a new algorithm for finding the confidence set of a collection of forecasts or prediction models. Existing numerical implementations for finding the confidence set use an elimination approach where one starts with the full collection of models and successively eliminates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011342917
assumptions than those required by existing approaches. Unlike existing shrinkage methods, our approach borrows the strength - but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014335942
This paper aims at providing a primer on the use of big data in macroeconomic nowcasting and early estimation. We discuss: (i) a typology of big data characteristics relevant for macroeconomic nowcasting and early estimates, (ii) methods for features extraction from unstructured big data to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915621
This paper proposes two consistent model selection procedures for factor-augmented regressions in finite samples. We first demonstrate that the usual cross-validation is inconsistent, but that a generalization, leave-d-out cross-validation, selects the smallest basis for the space spanned by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011756075
In this article we examine how model selection in neural networks can be guided by statistical procedures such as hypotheses tests, information criteria and cross validation. The application of these methods in neural network models is discussed, paying attention especially to the identification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011622013
Factor models have been successfully employed in summarizing large datasets with few underlying latent factors and in building time series forecasting models for economic variables. When the objective is to forecast a target variable y with a large set of predictors x, the construction of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015186