How frequent are large disagreements in human judgment? The substantial literature relating to expert assessments of real-valued quantities and their aggregation almost universally assumes that errors follow a jointly normal distribution. We investigate this question empirically using 17...

Managers frequently rely on the judgment of an expert to estimate a probability distribution for a continuous random variable. Two elicitation methods are commonly used to gather this information: (i) quantile judgments for a set of fixed probability values, or (ii) cumulative probability...

A stylized fact from laboratory experiments is that there is much heterogeneity in human behavior. We present and demonstrate a computationally practical non-parametric Bayesian method for characterizing this heterogeneity. In addition, we define the concept of behaviorally distinguishable...