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theory but rather base the decision of the lag structure on a robust Lagrange Multiplier test. In contrast to U.S. data we … find that the volatility depends on either the interest rate level or information shocks but not on both. Finally, we … propose to describe the short term interest rate's dynamics by means of an AR(1) model with stochastic volatility. -- Term …
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Long run neutrality restrictions have been widely used to identify structural shocks in VAR models. This paper revisits the seminal paper by Blanchard and Quah (1989), and investigates their identification scheme. We use structural VAR models with smoothly changing covariances for identification...
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Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174841
When quantifying the importance of supply and demand for oil price fluctuations, a wide range of estimates have been reported. Models identified via a sharp upper bound on the short-run price elasticity of supply find supply shocks to be minor drivers. In turn, when replacing the upper bound...
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