Estimating accurate probabilities of Meeting Financial Commitments is crucial for both short- and long-term decision making. It is well known, that for a variety of reasons, that individuals and teams, on average, overestimate the probability of success. In this article we discuss the results of...

Actuaries are often faced with the task of estimating tails of loss distributions from just a few observations. Thus estimates of tail probabilities (reinsurance prices) and percentiles (solvency capital requirements) are typically subject to substantial parameter uncertainty. We study the bias...

This paper presents a new string term structured model with stochastic volatility calibrated with futures and options market data. I use interest rate options to build a time series of the variance of the factors that drive the interest rates (level, slope, and curvature). In addition, the...

An agent is asked to assess a real-valued variable Y_{p} based on certain characteristics X_{p} = (X_{p}^{1},...,X_{p}^{m}), and on a database consisting (X_{i}^{1},...,X_{i}^{m},Y_{i}) for i = 1,...,n. A possible approach to combine past observations of X and Y with the current values of X to...

Existing methods for data interpolation or backdating are either univariate or based on a very limited number of series, due to data and computing constraints that were binding until the recent past. Nowadays large datasets are readily available, and models with hundreds of parameters are fastly...

In this paper we study the zero frequency spectral properties of fractionally cointegrated long memory processes and introduce a new frequency domain principal components estimator of the cointegration space and the factor loading matrix for the long memory factors. We find that for fractionally...