We develop a penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings. The penalization in the first pass enforces sparsity for the time-variation drivers while also maintaining compatibility with the no arbitrage restrictions by regularizing appropriate groups of coefficients. The second...

Predictive modeling is a key technique in auto insurance rate-making and the decision-making involved in the review of rate filings. Unlike an approach based on hypothesis testing, the results from predictive modeling not only serve as statistical evidence for decision-making, they also discover...

This paper introduces a bootstrap-based inference method for functions of the parameter vector in a moment (in)equality model. As a special case, our method yields marginal confidence sets for individual coordinates of this parameter vector. Our inference method controls asymptotic size...

This paper studies the problem of specification testing in partially identified models defined by a finite number of moment equalities and inequalities (i.e., (in)equalities). Under the null hypothesis, there is at least one parameter value that simultaneously satisfies all of the moment...

This paper introduces a new hypothesis test for the null hypothesis H0 : f(Ø) = Y0, where f(.) is a known function, Y0 is a known constant, and Ø is a parameter that is partially identified by a moment (in)equality model. The main application of our test is sub-vector inference in moment...