Although high frequency diffusion data is nowadays available, common practice is still to only use yearly figures in order to get rid of seasonality. This paper proposes a diffusion model that captures seasonality in a way that naturally matches the overall S-shaped pattern. The model is based...

In this paper we introduce a model that is suitable to study the diffusion of new and dominant multi-generation technologies. Examples are computer operat- ing systems, mobile phone standards, video game consoles. Our model incorporates three new features that are not included in related models....

Earnings forecasts can be useful for investment decisions. Research on earnings forecasts has focused on forecast performance in relation to firm characteristics, on categorizing the analysts into groups with similar behavior and on the effect of an earnings announcement by the firm on future...

A government's ability to forecast key economic fundamentals accurately can affect business confidence, consumer sentiment, and foreign direct investment, among others. Government forecasts are subject to error, as can be seen by the frequent revisions that are made to initial, and even revised,...

This paper discusses the practical usefulness of seasonally adjusted time series data. Aspects of seasonal adjustment are considered, and the relevance of adjusted data for economic modelling is examined. One recommendation which emerges from the discussion is that the adjusted data should be...

The abundance of highly disaggregate data (e.g., at 5 second intervals) raises the question of the optimal data interval to estimate advertising carryover. The literature assumes that 1) the optimal data interval is the inter-purchase time, 2) too disaggregate data causes a disaggregation bias...

We develop Hawkes models in which events are triggered through self as well as cross-excitation. We examine whether incorporating cross-excitation improves the forecasts of extremes in asset returns compared to only self-excitation. The models are applied to US stocks, bonds and dollar exchange...

We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable...