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In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during...
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This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in … the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic … features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation. …
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We present experimental evidence on the effects of four U.S. reemployment programs for youth Unemployment Insurance (UI … had minimal effects on employment and earnings; these programs mainly induced the early exit of participants. The fourth … increased employment and earnings. Both early participant exits and effective job counseling underlie these impacts. We conclude …
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Over the past several decades, the rate at which regular unemployment insurance recipients run out of benefits before … they have found jobs, even in a strong labor market, has been gradually rising. For example, in 1973, 27.4 percent of UI … recipients exhausted their benefits; in 2007 (with a similar unemployment rate) 35.6 percent exhausted. This paper documents the …
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