Similar Search Results

Was the U.S. Great Depression a Credit Boom Gone Wrong?

Postel-Vinay, Natacha - 2020

The US Great Depression was preceded by almost a decade of credit growth. This review paper suggests that the 1920s credit boom went through two phases: one, up to around 1927, when credit grew in concert with money; another one, from around 1928 to 1929, when credit grew faster than money....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848726

Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession : an extended Markov-Switching dynamic factor model

Doz, Catherine; Ferrara, Laurent; Pionnier, Pierre-Alain - 2020

need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility … Factor Model (MS-DFM) by incorporating two new features: switches in volatility and time-variation in trend GDP growth. First …, we show that volatility switches largely improve the detection of business cycle turning points in the low-volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227436

Regularized Estimation of Structural Instability in Factor Models : The US Macroeconomy and the Great Moderation

Callot, Laurent - 2015

This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021882

Regularized estimation of structural instability in factor models : the US macroeconomy and the great moderation

Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582

Business History > Piketty

Wright, Robert E. - 2015

Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century has attracted more attention than it perhaps deserves given that its main empirical claim, that wealth inequality is bound to occur in "capitalist" economies because the rate of return r is greater than the rate of economic growth g (r g), is not rigorously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014137599

Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk

Korobilis, Dimitris; Schröder, Maximilian - 2023

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014314068

Buried in the vaults of central banks : monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression

Karau, Sören - 2020 - This draft: October 2020

I study whether monetary gold hoarding was the main cause of the Great Depression in a structural VAR analysis. The notion that monetary forces played an important role in bringing about the depression is well established in the narrative literature, but has more recently met some skepticism by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405992

Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933 : Evidence from the Narrative Record

Jalil, Andrew; Rua, Gisela - 2021

This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088087

Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933 : Evidence from the Narrative Record

Jalil, Andrew - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023032

Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933 : Evidence from the Narrative Record

Jalil, Andrew - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035070

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