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Was the U.S. Great Depression a Credit Boom Gone Wrong?

Postel-Vinay, Natacha - 2020

The US Great Depression was preceded by almost a decade of credit growth. This review paper suggests that the 1920s credit boom went through two phases: one, up to around 1927, when credit grew in concert with money; another one, from around 1928 to 1929, when credit grew faster than money....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848726

Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle : accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework

Thiem, Christopher - 2017

volatility as well as the U.S. economy. We find that - even after accounting for these factors - oil price uncertainty still has … confirms these results. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge …Dieser Beitrag untersucht den Einfluss von Ölpreisunsicherheit auf die Wirtschaftsaktivität der USA mit Hilfe eines VAR …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608019

Regularized estimation of structural instability in factor models : the US macroeconomy and the great moderation

Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang - 2015

This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582

Estimation of Historical Inflation Expectations

Binder, Carola - 2016

Expected inflation is a central variable in economic theory. Economic historians have estimated historical inflation expectations for a variety of purposes, including studies of the Fisher effect, the debt deflation hypothesis, central bank credibility, and expectations formation. I survey the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989845

Business History > Piketty

Wright, Robert E. - 2015

Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century has attracted more attention than it perhaps deserves given that its main empirical claim, that wealth inequality is bound to occur in "capitalist" economies because the rate of return r is greater than the rate of economic growth g (r g), is not rigorously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014137599

Treatment of the Banking Holiday of March 1933 in Growth Regressions

Mladjan, Mrdjan - 2019

Government intervention during the banking holiday of March 1933 resolved the uncertainty usually created by bank suspensions. Including banking holiday suspensions in growth regressions therefore biases downwards the estimates of the real effects of bank suspensions. In this paper, I propose a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865724

Buried in the vaults of central banks : monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression

Karau, Sören - 2020 - This draft: October 2020

I study whether monetary gold hoarding was the main cause of the Great Depression in a structural VAR analysis. The notion that monetary forces played an important role in bringing about the depression is well established in the narrative literature, but has more recently met some skepticism by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405992

Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression

Bordo, Michael D.; Erceg, Christopher J.; Evans, Charles L. - 2000

This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014154226

Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity : Growth at Risk

Yao, Yudong; Wang, Yan - 2005

Using Growth at Risk as a measure of downside growth risk, the authors find that higher perceived levels of downside growth risk seem to be negatively associated with long-term growth. Output collapses and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically and have grave...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014124889

Is there really a global business cycle? : a dynamic factor model with stochastic factor selection

Berger, Tino; Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2016

We investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961 - 2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with predetermined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556201

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