Real estate—housing in particular—is a less profitable investment in the long run than previously thought. We hand-collect property-level financial data for the institutional real estate portfolios of four large Oxbridge colleges over the period 1901–1983. Gross income yields initially...

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a...

We propose newly developed unsmoothing techniques for appraisal-based real estate returns based on a regime-switching Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model. We show that when true returns follow a TAR process, conventional linear autoregressive technique are misspecified and underestimate true...