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inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Japan, we find that the estimated … paths across forecasters points to a diverse set of views across forecasters about the inflation process in Japan …
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suitable to forecast recessions, low growth periods and accelerations for the U.S. and Japan. In a first step, we apply a non … Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeiten von Rezessionsphasen, Phasen niedrigen Wachstums sowie Boomphasen für die USA und Japan. Zuerst werden diese drei …
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The paper uses capital and labor utilization rates to derive estimates of the Japanese output gap and potential output. Two techniques are used. The first uses the cyclical indicators to adjust potential output estimates derived from a Hodrick- Prescott filter over the most recent period when...
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Historical events are reflected in asset prices. In this paper, we analyse government bond prices of Germany and Austria traded on the Swiss bourse during WWII. Some war events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for...
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According to the literature, historical episodes of local self-governing institutions can explain why differences in socio-economic performances among different territories can persist over centuries. Such assumption has been tested comparing free city-states (Communes) and feudal towns in...
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