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We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with … Iraq. The novel feature of our analysis derives from the existence of a market for Saddam Securities,' a new future traded …'s price provides a plausible estimate of the probability of war. The spot oil price has moved closely with the Saddam Security …
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We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with … Iraq. The novel feature of our analysis derives from the existence of a market for Saddam Securities,' a new future traded …'s price provides a plausible estimate of the probability of war. The spot oil price has moved closely with the Saddam Security …
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