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-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend-price ratio for such … changes resolves several issues with respect to the predictability of stock market returns: The adjusted dividend-price ratio … predictability ; dividend-price ratio ; payout policy ; sample selection ; choice of organizational structure …
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A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...
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