This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

This book addresses the macroeconomic implications of a country's transition to a monetary union. By using a dynamic multi-country simulation model, it is possible to pinpoint a monetary union, and repercussions produced by fiscal retrenchment policies. Interest and exchange rate effects could...

We use generalized method of moments to estimate a rational expectations aggregate demand-aggregate supply macroeconomic model for five European economies. Our aim is to examine whether supply or demand shocks have predominated in the major European economies during the post-war era and whether...