The estimate of the probability of default plays a central role for any financial entity that wants to have an overview of the risks of insolvency it may incur by having economic relations with counterparties. This study aims to analyze the calculation of such measure in the context of...

This paper addresses the building of obligor-level hazard rate corporate probability of default models for stress testing, departing from the predominant practice in wholesale credit modeling of constructing segment-level models for this purpose. We build models based upon varied financial,...

This paper develops an empirical procedure for analyzing the impact of model misspecification and calibration errors on measures of portfolio credit risk. When applied to large simulated portfolios with realistic characteristics, this procedure reveals that violations of key assumptions of the...