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suitable to forecast recessions, low growth periods and accelerations for the U.S. and Japan. In a first step, we apply a non … Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeiten von Rezessionsphasen, Phasen niedrigen Wachstums sowie Boomphasen für die USA und Japan. Zuerst werden diese drei …
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inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Japan, we find that the estimated … paths across forecasters points to a diverse set of views across forecasters about the inflation process in Japan …
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The paper uses capital and labor utilization rates to derive estimates of the Japanese output gap and potential output. Two techniques are used. The first uses the cyclical indicators to adjust potential output estimates derived from a Hodrick- Prescott filter over the most recent period when...
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