We consider inference of predictive regression with multiple predictors. Extant tests for predictability, including those constructed with robustness to unknown persistence and endogeneity of predictors, may perform unsatisfactorily and tend to discover spurious predictability as the number of...

We consider the regression discontinuity (RD) design with the duration outcome which has discrete support. The parameters of policy interest are treatment effects on unconditional (duration effect) and conditional (hazard effect) exiting probabilities for each discrete level. We propose a novel...

We consider the regression discontinuity (RD) design with the duration outcome which has discrete support. The parameters of policy interest are treatment effects on unconditional (duration effect) and conditional (hazard effect) exiting probabilities for each discrete level. We find that a...

This paper proposes a novel positive nonparametric estimator of the conditional variance function without reliance on logarithmic or other transformations. The estimator is based on an empirical likelihood modification of conventional local level nonparametric regression applied to squared mean...