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In this paper we study the predictability of aggregate consumption growth using common factors extracted from a large panel of macroeconomic and financial time series. The stochastic process followed by consumption growth and its predictability by other variables is a key assumption in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120551
We re-visit a puzzling result that in U.S. post-WW II data the dividend price ratio can predict aggregate returns but not dividend growth. We find that predictive regressions are sensitive to the method used to aggregate firm-level data. Using value weighted firm-level data we find strong...
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