This paper investigates the consistency of asymmetric interest rate past-trough (IRPT) using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag framework. Superior to the previous studies, this study exploits the historical profile of Indonesia to enrich the analysis. Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) which...

Recent studies have showed that it is troublesome, in practice, to distinguish between long memory and nonlinear processes. Therefore, it is of obvious interest to try to capture both features of long memory and non-linearity into a single time series model to be able to assess their relative...

This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian model averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors that includes lagged values of inflation, a host of real activity data,...

The volatility of growth in U.S. real GDP declined dramatically in the mid-1980s. Viewed through the lens of linear autoregressive models, this phenomenon appears to be the result of a structural break in the innovation process that drives GDP fluctuations. We present an alternative model that...

This paper assesses the stochastic convergence of relative CO₂ emissions within three different sets of countries over the period 1950-2013. Using the Local Whittle (LW) estimator and its variants we investigate whether relative per-capita CO₂ emissions are long memory processes which, although...

This study examines the Turkish crude oil import demand for the period of 1970-2013. Unlike earlier studies on Turkey, we tested the income and price elasticities of crude oil demand with structural breaks. In empirical analysis, the income and the price of crude oil used as a function of crude...

This paper tests for a sulfur Kuznets curve by examining the sulfur emissions per capita-GDP per capita relationship individually, for 25 OECD countries over 1950-2005 using a reduced-form, linear model that allows for multiple endogenously determined breaks. This approach addresses several...

In recent years, unemployment has become a major problem in many countries. The fluctuations of the unemployment rate as well as its persistence in some countries impose challenges to economic policy makers. In order to implement appropriate policy measures, it is necessary to know the exact...

The post-pandemic rise in consumer prices across the world has renewed interest in inflation dynamics after decades of global disinflation. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a granular investigation of inflation persistence at the city level in Lithuania during the period...

We use TVP models and real-time data to describe the evolution of the leading properties of the yield spread for output growth in five European economies and in the US over the last decades and until the third quarter of 2010. We evaluate the predictive performance of benchmark term-structure...