We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on...

We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on...

Using panel data of 192 countries from 1970 through 1999, and 195 currency crisis episodes, this study examines the effect of membership in a currency union on the probability of experiencing a currency crisis. Both parametric and non-parametric estimates suggest that membership in a currency...

This paper examines the historical pattern of aggregate demand and supply shocks in several European Monetary System countries in order to assess the desirability of monetary union. Countries with similar patterns of shocks are presumably better candidates for monetary union than those hit by...

A traditional OCA criterion holds that the more symmetric the shock exposure of countries, the more suited they are for currency union. According to Frankel and Rose (1998, 2002), growing correlation of the ex post income fluctuations of members also can provide endogenous justification for...

A traditional OCA criterion holds that the more symmetric the shock exposure of countries, the more suited they are for currency union. According to Frankel and Rose (1998, 2002), growing correlation of the ex post income fluctuations of members also can provide endogenous justification for...

This paper extends the work of Kaminsky and Schmukler (2003) to the Baltic and Central Eastern European future Member States of the European Union, to test if the same short-run increase in cyclical volatility arising from financial integration is observed in this specific sample of ?emerging...

In this paper we examine changes on investment decisions induced by the introduction of the Euro. There are two potential sources of portfolio reallocation. First, the introduction of the Euro diminished exchange rate risks within the EMU region, which relieved European investors from currency...

The accession of several Central and Eastern European Countries to Euroland is likely to be realised within the next years. Some studies aim at analysing the suitability of these Euro aspirants for currency union with EMU by evaluating the related macroeconomic costs. Still, they are prone to...

Already before the final introduction of the single European currency there have been negotiations on a further enlargement of the Eurozone to the East. The accession of 10 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) to Euroland is likely to be realised within the next 10 years and it is an...