Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese...

This paper examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in two leading transitioneconomy candidates for admission to the European Union (EU), Poland and Hungary. Using a rational expectations, dynamic open economy aggregate supply- aggregate demand model, we consider real oil...

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy shocks on UK regional economic growth and dispersion in a novel Constrained Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive framework. Compared to a standard MFVAR, the model partially accounts for missing quarterly observations for regional growth by...

The paper applies an equilibrium correction model to discuss impacts of monetary, labour and external factors on the German inflation. The approach presented is of eclectic character and allows for examination which variables representative for various inflation theories matter empirically when...

Australia's inflation rate and inflation uncertainty during the post-float era 1983Q3–2006Q4 have acted as important barometers of Australia's macroeconomic performance. The conceptualization and measurement of the nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty is subject to complex...

This paper estimates output gaps for Hong Kong, Korea, the Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan, employing the HP filter and unobservable-components (UC) techniques. The latter approach assumes that actual output is the sum of potential output, which follows a random walk with a time-varying drift,...

This study was carried out to estimate underlying inflation in Nigeria using Unobserved Component (UC) model. Also, different channels were used to identify the source of inflation persistence and volatility. This was estimated using Bayesian analysis in order to examine the role of priors in...

We investigate inflation in Poland in the period of economic transition by examining the potential application of Markov Switching Models to model the inflation generating process in Poland. The time horizon of analysis was limited to the period between March 1992 and October 2005 defined as the...

This paper examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in two leading transition- economy candidates for admission to the European Union (EU), Poland and Hungary. Using a rational expectations, dynamic open economy aggregate supply- aggregate demand model, we consider real oil...