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A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model implements the yield curve differentials between EUR and the US as exogenous factors. Functional principal component analysis allows us to use the information of basically the...
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High-frequency data can provide us with a quantity of informa- tion for forecasting, help to calculate and prevent the future risk based on extremes. This tail behaviour is very often driven by ex- ogenous components and may be modelled conditional on other vari- ables. However, many of these...
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This paper uses a broad geographical sample to investigate stock market integration during the classical Gold Standard. It is novel in estimating 'global components' of stock market returns, using methods proposed by Volosovych (2011), Pukthuanthong and Roll (2009) and Ciccarelli and Mojon...
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