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Predicting Inflation : Portfolio Erosion or Collapse?
Crawford, George - 2012
What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even … characterizes this as The War On Savers. Higher inflation is possible, at 4% or more, with even worse effects. There are heated … debates about the probability and timing of high inflation, but our review of the extensive literature reveals no reliable way …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099903
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Fiscal consolidation and the current account : OECD evidence
Breuer, Christian; Nam, Chang-woon - 2020
We apply a "new" conventional (CAPB-based) measure of fiscal policy, which is less prone to endogeneity issues, and find that a 1-percent of GDP fiscal consolidation leads to the improvement of the current account-to-GDP ratio by approximately 0.8 percent of GDP, while previous research based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162382
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Fiscal consolidation and the current account : OECD evidence
Breuer, Christian; Nam, Chang-woon - 2020
We apply a "new" conventional (CAPB-based) measure of fiscal policy, which is less prone to endogeneity issues, and find that a 1-percent of GDP fiscal consolidation leads to the improvement of the current account-to-GDP ratio by approximately 0.8 percent of GDP, while previous research based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157972
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Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes : a panel analysis of the Euro Area
Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023
appears to be far more crucial. However, regarding inflation targeting, monetary policy is most effective in the low debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014336399
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Fiscal Consolidation and Automatic Stabilization : New Results
Dolls, Mathias - 2020
We analyze how the combined effect of automatic stabilizers and discretionary changes in tax-benefit systems have affected the cushioning of income shocks in the Euro zone and the EU-27 in the period 2007–2014. We propose a new summary measure of the combined effect of automatic stabilizers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843440
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Consumption patterns of indebted households : unravelling the relevance of fiscal policy
Afonso, António; Rodrigues, Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão - 2023
We have investigated the influence of fiscal instruments, notably taxes on income and government spending, on household consumption in two different samples and two measures of household debt to provide a comprehensive analysis of the topic. We used dynamic panel models and the GMM approach for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014314290
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The impact of constrained monetary policy on the fiscal multipliers on output and inflation
Bletzinger, Tilman; Lalik, Magdalena - 2017
on output and, in particular, also on inflation in the euro area under alternative settings for monetary policy. We … that this over-proportionality is stronger for the fiscal multiplier on inflation than on output. We relate this finding to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637428
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Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022
We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to-GDP ratio; and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162289
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Budgetary constrained governments : drivers of time varying fiscal sustainability in OECD countries
Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2024
fiscal rules in terms of the budget balance, and also the output gap. The effects of inflation, external accounts balance and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543858
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Managing the Public Debt in Fiscal Stabilizations : The Evidence
Missale, Alessandro; Giavazzi, Francesco; Benigno, Pierpaolo - 1997
This paper provides evidence on the behavior of public debt managers during fiscal stabilizations in OECD countries over the last two decades. We find that debt maturity tends to lengthen the more credible is the program, the lower is the long-term interest rate and the higher is the volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081767