Using a structural model of default, we construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. The systemic default measure spikes during recession...

This paper provides new evidence concerning the probability of informed trading (PIN) and the PIN-return relationship. We take measures to overcome known estimation biases and improve the quality of quarterly PIN estimates. We use the average of a firm's PIN estimates in four consecutive...

We examine how capital structure considerations affect acquisition pricing and valuation. We find that debt capacity improvement is value-enhancing for all acquirers when they gradually reveal their growth opportunities to the market. This is reflected in the long-run stock market returns, both...