In this paper we introduce a small Keynesian model of economic growth, which is centered around two advanced types of Phillips curves, one for money wages and one for prices, both being augmented by perfect myopic foresight and supplemented by a measure of the medium-term inflationary climate...

Introducing the approach by Masanao Aoki (1981) to time series econometrics, we show that the dynamics of symmetric linear possibly cointegrated two-country VAR models can be separated into two autonomous subsystems: the country averages and country differences, where the latter includes the...

This note aims to identify the stable long-run relationships as well as unstable driving forces of the world economy using an aggregated approach involving the four largest currency blocks. The small global macromodel encompasses aggregated quarterly US, UK, Japanese and Euro Area data for the...

We study the exchange rate effects of monetary policy in a balanced macroeconometric two-country model for the US and UK. In contrast to the empirical literature on the "delayed overshooting puzzle", which consistently treats the domestic and foreign countries unequally in themodelling process,...

In this paper we introduce a cointegrated VAR modelling approach for two-country macro dynamics. In order to tackle the curse of dimensionality resulting from the number of variables in multi-country models, we investigate the applicability of the approach by Aoki (1981) frequently used in...

While there has been a great deal of interest in the modelling of non-linearities in economic time series, there is no clear consensus regarding the forecasting abilities of non-linear time-series models. We evaluate the performance of two leading non-linear models in forecasting post-war US...