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Guided by a macroeconomic model in which non-energy commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model yields a factor structure for commodity...
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In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011942328
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This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011804879
We use administrative data for Norway to estimate an incomplete-market life cycle model of retired singles and couples with a bequest motive, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. We allow the parameters of the bequest utility to differ between households with and without...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014562957
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There has been a revival of interest in the effect of risk on economic growth. We quantify both ex ante and ex post … effects of risk using a stochastic version of the Ramsey model. We develop a simulation-based econometric methodology which … remarkable long-running panel data set for rural households in Zimbabwe. We find that risk substantially reduces growth: in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334326
Most measures of vulnerability are a-theoretic and essentially static. In this paper we use a stochastic Ramsey model to find a household's optimal welfare and we measure vulnerability as the shortfall from the welfare attained if the household consumed permanently at the poverty line. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334363