This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as...

If firms borrow working capital to finance production, then nominal interest rates have a direct influence on inflation dynamics, which appears to be the case empirically. However, interest rates may only partly mirror the cost of working capital. In this paper we explore the role of bank...

It is widely believed that the Fed controls the funds rate by altering the degree of pressure in the reserve market through open market operations when it changes its target for the federal funds rate. Recently, however, several economists have suggested that open market operations may not be...

In this paper we follow an empirical approach to examine the implications of the Fisher hypothesis, namely cointegration linking interest rates and inflation, and stationarity of the real interest rate implying in turn homogeneity of the potential equilibrium relation. The considered sample is...

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) small-open-economy model for the Hungarian economy. The model features different types of frictions, real and nominal rigidities which are necessary to replicate the empirical persistence of Hungarian data....

This paper compares impulse responses to monetary policy shocks in the euro area countries before the EMU and in the New Member States (NMS) from central-eastern Europe. We mitigate the small sample problem, which is especially acute for the NMS, by using a Bayesian estimation that combines...

During the Great Recession numerous central banks have implemented various unconventional monetary policy measures. This paper aims to empirically evaluate two particular types of unconventional policies (forward guidance and quantitative easing) in a structural manner. The primary aim is to...