, marginal likelihood comparisons and improved real-time GDP forecasting performance. …

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that … indicate that in many cases the gains in forecasting accuracy relative to a simple univariate autoregression are only moderate …

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches for German key macroeconomic variables …

probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …