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Bank of Finland's long-run forecast framework with human capital
Kokkinen, Arto; Obstbaum, Meri; Mäki-Fränti, Petri - 2021
Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy's likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012703120
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Estimation and forecasting using mixed-frequency DSGE models
Meyer-Gohde, Alexander; Shabalina, Ekaterina - 2022
higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting (see Giannone, Monti and Reichlin (2016)). The second method transforms … our method substantially decreases forecasting errors for recessions, but casting the model in a monthly frequency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013465707
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Bayesian methods for completing data in space-time panel models
Llano, Carlos; Polasek, Wolfgang; Sellner, Richard - 2009
Completing data sets that are collected in heterogeneous units is a quite frequent problem. Chow and Lin (1971) were the first to develop a united framework for the three problems (interpolation, extrapolation and distribution) of predicting times series by related series (the 'indicators')....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294002
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Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis
Brauning, Falk; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2012
We explore a new approach to the forecasting of macroeconomic variables based on a dynamic factor state space analysis … forecasting purposes. Given a dynamic factor model as the data generation process, we provide Monte Carlo evidence for the finite … unbalanced panel contain quarterly and monthly variables. The forecasting accuracy is measured against a set of benchmark models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326452
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Prognosen aus dem Internet: Weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009
Nach einem neuen methodischen Prognosekonzept, das arbeitsmarktbezogene Internetdaten nutzt, entspannt sich zum Frühjahr 2009 die Arbeitsmarktlage. Das Papier erläutert die Technik der Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit unter Nutzung der Messung der Google-Suchaktivität und illustriert die...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010331484
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Prognosen aus dem Internet: weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - In: DIW Wochenbericht 76 (2009) 25, pp. 402-408
Überraschend ist im Mai die Arbeitslosigkeit gefallen. Diese positive Entwicklung wird sich im Juni zunächst fortsetzen. Diese Einschätzung basiert auf einem neuen methodischen Konzept, das Google-Aktivitätsdaten für die kurzfristige Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit einsetzt. Gerade in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602014
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Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies
Marcet, Albert; Nicolini, Juan Pablo - 2005
This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning does better or worse than a model of rational expectations, and we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604515
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Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis
Dées, Stéphane; di Mauro, Filippo; Pesaran, Hashem; … - 2005
This paper presents a quarterly global model linking individual country vector errorcorrecting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604614
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Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective.
Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, Hashem; Smith, Vanessa; … - 2008
New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been exten-sively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macro-economic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604938
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Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model
Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, Hashem; Smith, Vanessa; … - 2010
This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605285