Evidence from a large and growing empirical literature strongly suggests that there have been changes in inflation and output dynamics in the United Kingdom. This is largely based on a class of econometric models that allow for time-variation in coefficients and volatilities of shocks. While...

In this paper, we examine the ability of Fisher effect to describe the subjective behaviour of monetary policy responses for nations constrained by global factors. We developed and estimated a simple DSGE model for appraising the consequence of an integrated financial market predictor on...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...