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test for hysteresis two alternative bootstrap algorithms are proposed: the first is valid under homoskedastic errors and …A new test for hysteresis based on a nonlinear unobserved components model is proposed. Observed unemployment rates are … lagged cyclical shocks on the current natural component is the measure of hysteresis. To derive anappropriate p-value for a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014189791
heteroskedastic SVAR-GARCH model and propose a bootstrap-based inference procedure on structural impulse responses. We compare the … finite-sample properties of our bootstrap method with those of two competing bootstrap methods via extensive Monte Carlo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011817166
occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, the (mis-)measurement of important variables such as in ation expectations … direct measures of in ationary expectations, the Kalman filter method, and the residual-based bootstrap procedure (in order …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297287
occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, the (mis-)measurement of important variables such as in ation expectations … direct measures of in ationary expectations, the Kalman filter method, and the residual-based bootstrap procedure (in order …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448601
This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the euro-area output gap by taking advantage of two types of data heterogeneity. On the one hand, the method uses information on real GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate for each member state; on the other hand, it jointly considers this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932248
This paper is aimed at presenting application of bootstrap interval estimation methods to the assessment of financial … investment’s effectiveness and risk. At first, we give an overview of various methods of bootstrap confidence interval estimation …, i.e. bootstrap-t interval, percentile interval and BCa interval. Then, bootstrap confidence interval estimation methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012887711
We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model … in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis … not evolve according to hysteresis, not even during the Great Recession. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372431
In this paper, we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call … employment and investment, although output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012663764
We extend the method of indirect inference testing to data that is not filtered and so may be non-stationary. We apply the method to an open economy real business cycle model on UK data. We review the method using a Monte Carlo experiment and find that it performs accurately and has good power.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288847
datain that period. To calculate asymptotically valid confidence intervals we usethe delta method and two bootstrap variants …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460507