This paper examines whether the presence of parameter instabilities in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial frictions for the US economy. Over the forecast period...

The paper shows some new features implemented in SoePL-2012 DSGE model, namely explicitly modeled unobserved labour supply and observed unemployment rate. Our approach to labour market in the New Keynesian DSGE model follows papers of Galí et al. (2011); Galí (2011b), see also Christiano et...

We estimate a DSGE model with Preferences Over Safe Assets (POSA) on Euro Area macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations measures. The model with POSA has much better empirical fit than the otherwise identical model without, especially once interest rate expectations are added to the...

The downturn in the world economy following the global banking crisis has left the Chinese economy relatively unscathed. This paper develops a model of the Chinese economy using a DSGE framework with a banking sector to shed light on this episode. It differs from other applications in the use of...

This paper gives money a role in providing cheap collateral in a model of banking; besides the Taylor Rule, monetary policy can affect the risk-premium on bank lending to firms by varying the supply of M0, so at the zero bound monetary policy is effective; fiscal policy crowds out investment via...

We estimate the Smets and Wouters (2007) model augmented with the Gertler and Karadi (2011) financial intermediation sector on US data by using real and financial observables. Given the framework of the estimated model, we address the question whether and how standard monetary policy should...

We estimate the Smets and Wouters (2007) model augmented with the Gertler and Karadi (2011) financial intermediation sector on US data by using real and financial observables. Given the framework of the estimated model, we address the question whether and how standard monetary policy should...

During the last few years, there has been a widespread debate about the role of asset prices in the determination of monetary policy. Monetary authorities have traditionally used a Monetary Conditions Index, which is a weighted average between the interest rate and the exchange rate, in order to...

Over the last two decades the intensity of credit standards' tightening during economic contractions has exceeded their easing during expansions among euro area banks. This mechanism is fed by the boom-bust cycle of credit that, as much research has shown, is linked to financial instability with...

We use the recently proposed linear opinion pool methodology of Garratt et al. (2014) to construct real-time ensemble nowcast densities of the output gap for Switzerland over an out-of-sample period from 2003:Q1 to 2015:Q4. The model space consists of a large number of bivariate VAR...