This paper explores a range of simple models to study the relationship between global temperature anomalies and climate forcings. In particular, we consider quantile regression models with potentially time-varying parameters (TVP), implemented by Bayesian methods. In its most general...

Long-horizon predictability is not a myth. We propose a new analytical standard error for predictive regressions that does not impose the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable and exhibits substantial power gains relative to popular tests. Deriving the covariance matrix under the...