The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 resulted in a severe economic downturn and a stark temporary decline in fertility in East Germany. But did it also affect the fertility of future generations? In this paper, I investigate early motherhood - a marker of lifetime disadvantage - of those...

We develop and estimate a panel data model explaining the answers to questions about subjective probabilities, using data from the US Health and Retirement Study. We explicitly account for nonresponse, rounding, and focal point "50 percent" answers. Our results indicate that for three of the...