Literature Review -- Return Predictability and the Real Economy -- Study Design and Data -- Empirical Part I - Testing for Predictability -- Forecasting Models -- Empirical Part II - Investment Strategies -- Conclusion

The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is one of the most important economic and financial hypotheses that have been tested over the past century. Due to many abnormal phenomena and conflicting evidence, otherwise known as anomalies against EMH, some academics have questioned whether EMH is...