which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

, materially heighten the risk of financial crises. Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era …

which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into … negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are … preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using the term spread as predictor time the beginning of recessions …

. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation …

Do stock markets act as a spare tire during banking crises, providing an alternative corporate financing channel and … mitigating the economic severity of these crises? Using firm-level data in 36 countries from 1990 through 2011, we find that the … adverse consequences of banking crises on equity issuances, firm profitability, employment, and investment efficiency are …