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We develop an equilibrium lifecycle model of education, marriage and labor supply and consumption in a transferable utility context. Individuals start by choosing their investments in education anticipating returns in the marriage market and the labor market. They then match based on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498621
substantially improve both the statistical and economic out-of-sample performance of multivariate models for return predictability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239660
local-momentum autoregression model, we find that the sentiment effect is prolonged and sustained during the bubble while it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869173
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
predictability hypothesis, suggesting that time-aggregation of dividends eliminates significant information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006710
We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is …-series momentum, which strengthens in bad times, increases with disagreement, and crashes after sharp market rebounds. We provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618
This paper attempts to estimate and study the role of 'other information', as posited in the residual income valuation model of Ohlson (1995), for tracking and predicting future returns of the S&P 500. 'Other information' is an unobserved variable and defined as a summary of value-relevant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830124
We develop tests for deciding whether a large cross‐section of asset prices obey an exact factor structure at the times of factor jumps. Such jump dependence is implied by standard linear factor models. Our inference is based on a panel of asset returns with asymptotically increasing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012042424
reviews the theory and literature on market efficiency and market anomalies. We give a brief review on market efficiency and …. This review is useful to academics for developing cutting-edge treatments of financial theory that EMH, anomalies, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012237439
between competing sources of this return predictability by virtue of a comprehensive set of expectations data, we find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003727414