, inflation and unemployment, we detect a wrong sign in the response of inflation to contractionary monetary policy shocks … 1999-2019, when the Federal Funds Rate and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate are added to the VAR model inflation shows … significant unemployment inflation trade-off emerges. These conclusions are confirmed by using industrial production instead of …

changes in inflation on fiscal policy. We find evidence of non-linear short-term effects of HICP inflation on the primary … an inflation turning point - beyond which its short-term (contemporaneous) impact on the primary balance starts being … the whole sample of euro area countries in 2022 (EA-19). Using an alternative measure of "inflation surprise" (available …

We examine the relationship between inflation and fiscal sustainability with a two-step approach. In the first step, we … various measures of inflation such as headline inflation, core inflation, energy inflation, and food inflation affect the … estimate of fiscal sustainability found previously. Our findings indicate that higher inflation rates contribute positively to …

Against the difficult background of analysing aggregated data in this paper core inflation in the euro area is … misleading indicator for monetary policy in the euro area. We furthermore compare our core inflation measure to the wide … coincident indicator of HICP inflation. Assessing the robustness of our core inflation measure we carefully conclude that it …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the … and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic …. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with …