This paper studies the impact of cyclical systemic risk on future bank profitability for a large representative panel … risk predict large drops in the average bank-level return on assets (ROA) with a lead time of 3-5 years. Based on quantile … local projections we further show that the negative impact of cyclical systemic risk on the left tail of the future bank …

is generally small. Surprisingly, we find that spill-overs of bank-related events are not significantly different from …

market is endogenously formed. Bank assets are hit by idiosyncratic shocks drawn from a thin tailed distribution. The uneven … to be heavily indebted to other banks, their liquidation can trigger other bank failures. We find that the distribution …