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Predicting Lotto Numbers
Jorgensen, Claus Bjorn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert - 2011
We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014184265
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Predicting Lotto Numbers
Jorgensen, Claus Bjorn - 2011
We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128034
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The impact of news on US household inflation expectations
Chao, Shih-Kang; Härdle, Wolfgang; Sheen, Jeffrey R.; … - 2017
Analysis of monthly disaggregated data from 1978 to 2016 on US household in ation expectations reveals that exposure to news on in ation and monetary policy helps to explain in ation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, their perceptions of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011657291
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The Effects of High-frequency Anticipatory Trading : Small Informed Trader vs. Front-runner
Xu, Ziyi; Cheng, Xue - 2023
In this paper, the interactions between a large informed trader (IT, for short) and a high-frequency trader (HFT, for short) who can anticipate the former's incoming order are studied in an extended Kyle's model. Equilibria under various specific situations are discussed. We find that, in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350908
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Cognition, optimism and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs
Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; … - 2018
This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in empirically estimated deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011816303
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Cognition, optimism and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs
Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; … - 2018
This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in empirically estimated deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011796058
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Cognition, optimism and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs
Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; … - 2020
-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism … decrease with age. We document that direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression … finding is that cognitive weakness rather than optimism is an increasingly important contributor to the well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012303266
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Cognition, optimism and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs
Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; … - 2019
: cognitive weakness rather than optimism is an increasingly important contributor to overestimation of survival chances in old …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012062116
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Human Capital Investments and Expectations About Career and Family
Wiswall, Matthew - 2017
This paper studies how individuals believe human capital investments will affect their future career and family life. We conducted a survey of high-ability currently enrolled college students and elicited beliefs about how their choice of college major, and whether to complete their degree at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968273
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Human capital investments and expectations about career and family
Wiswall, Matthew; Zafar, Basit - 2016
This paper studies how individuals believe human capital investments will affect their future career and family life. We conducted a survey of high-ability currently enrolled college students and elicited beliefs about how their choice of college major, and whether to complete their degree at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011536082