story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, the paper shows that the proposed approach performs well as compared to other well …

We extend the literature on economic forecasting by constructing a mixed-frequency time-varying parameter vector … competitors. In particular, inflation forecasts benefit from this new forecasting approach. Finally, we assess the models …