Individual risk preference may change after experiencing external socio-economic or natural shocks. Theoretical … predictions and empirical studies suggest that risk taking may increase or decrease after experiencing shocks. So far the … whether experiencing financial and health-related damage caused by storms affects risk preference of individuals in Germany …

We examine the connection between tail risk — as measured in Kelly and Jiang (2014) — and the cross-section of expected … risk appears to forecast discount rates — and not cash flows — which seems inconsistent with crash-based explanations of … the importance of tail risk. We also compare the time series of tail risk to measures of aggregate uncertainty, a measure …

We propose a news-implied rare disaster risk indicator and study its predictive power on the returns of U.S. Treasury … not spanned by the current yield curve. The disaster risk factor delivers a counter cycle bond risk premium, and the … predictability of disaster risk is more significant during periods of economic downturn. Our empirical findings show that disaster …