In this paper we study the predictability of aggregate consumption growth using common factors extracted from a large panel of macroeconomic and financial time series. The stochastic process followed by consumption growth and its predictability by other variables is a key assumption in...

This paper examines the relationship between stock prices and commodity prices and whether this can be used to forecast stock returns. As both prices are linked to expected future economic performance they should exhibit a long-run relationship. Moreover, changes in sentiment towards commodity...

We re-visit a puzzling result that in U.S. post-WW II data the dividend price ratio can predict aggregate returns but not dividend growth. We find that predictive regressions are sensitive to the method used to aggregate firm-level data. Using value weighted firm-level data we find strong...