Showing 1 - 10 of 4,999
The purpose of the present paper is to study how households form inflation expectations. Using a novel survey …-base dataset of Italian households' opinions of inflation we investigate two separate, but related, types of behavior …: 'inattentiveness' and 'anchoring'. The present analysis extends the existing literature by incorporating explicitly inflation targets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011734165
This research highlights the role played by the media in the inflation expectations formation process of different … transforming text into quantitative indicators, which reflect news topics relevant to inflation expectations. As such, I found … evidence that the different news topics have an impact on inflation expectations and can explain part of their variance. Thus …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012590152
, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the … inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply factors, we also find an important role for current and expected negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441
inflation and on unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the existence of the Taylor rule. Using micro survey data … mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. Exploring further determinants, we confirm that central bank transparency as well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010504015
Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this paper, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961331
In this paper, we explore the degree of anchoring of consumers' individual long-run inflation expectations utilizing …-run inflation expectations became more anchored over the last decades, as the degree of co-movement between short- and long … seems that older cohorts, who experienced the high inflation period of the 1970s, remain less anchored in their long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846446
Inflation expectations are key to economic activity, and in the current economic climate of a heated labor market, they … therefore individual behavior, may not be sensitive to changes in inflation when it is low. This paper explores evidence of such … inflation expectations. Exploring inflation thresholds of 2, 3, and 4 percent, our findings are consistent with the inattention …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012135707
A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great … Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation … expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159651
We explore the dynamics of inflation, inflation expectations, and seigniorage-financed fiscal deficits in Mexico. To do … so, we estimate the model in Sargent, Williams, and Zha (2009) using Mexican CPI inflation data. This model features dual … expected inflation equilibriums and regime switching in the mean and variance of the fiscal deficit probability density …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012165948