The situation of a limited availability of historical data is frequently encountered in portfolio risk estimation, especially in credit risk estimation. This makes it, for example, difficult to find temporal structures with statistical significance in the data on the single asset level. By...

The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is...

We show by Monte Carlo simulations that the jackknife estimation of QUENOUILLE (1956) provides substantial bias reduction for the estimation of short-term interest rate models applied in CHAN ET AL. (1992) - hereafter CKLS (1992). We find that an alternative estimation based on NOWMAN (1997)...

Numerous studies have found a negative relationship between the closeness of an election, the size of the electorate and voter turnout. It is often claimed that this relationship supports the rational voter hypothesis, with closeness and size proxying for the decisiveness of a vote. We offer a...

Az új EU tagállamok gazdasági folyamatainak szembeötlõ jellegzetessége az egy fõre jutó GDP-ben mutatkozó felzárkózásuk, illetve az ezzel kapcsolatos árszínvonalbeli konvergencia. Amennyiben ez a jövõben is folytatódni fog, akkor az inflációra és árfolyamra vonatkozó...

We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed at high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes. We introduce a flexible point-mass...

We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed on high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes or the time between potentially...

The vast majority of regions in West Germany, and the EU, have become more similar in terms of per-capita income and productivity between 1980 and 2000. But a number of rich areas - generally large agglomerations - have succeeded in departing from this trend of convergence. They are continuing...

Az új EU tagállamok gazdasági folyamatainak szembeötlõ jellegzetessége az egy fõre jutó GDP-ben mutatkozó felzárkózásuk, illetve az ezzel kapcsolatos árszínvonalbeli konvergencia. Amennyiben ez a jövõben is folytatódni fog, akkor az inflációra és árfolyamra vonatkozó...

The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is...