The debate on the forecasting ability in economics of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession … provides us with an opportunity for a re-assessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non-linear models … period. In spite of this result, non-linear models enable to improve forecast accuracy in almost 40% of cases. Especially …

, marginal likelihood comparisons and improved real-time GDP forecasting performance. …

Im Mittelpunkt der Arbeit steht die theoretische und empirische Analyse von Angebot und Nachfrage auf den Im- und …

We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany … indicators. We show that the best set of predictors, within and between categories, changes over time and depends on the forecast … Finanzkrise spürbar erhöht hat. …